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Friday, November 2, 2007
CMP Rs1,250, BUY
Target price Rs1,350, Upside 8%
ä Lower subsidy burden boosts profitability
ä Increased gas production and higher crude realizations drive topline growth
ä Incremental volumes from OVL expected as projects enter the development phase.
ä Undervalued in comparison to global peers on EV/BOE. We recommend a BUY with a target price of Rs1,350.
The market remained firm this week despite bad global cues. The volatile week ended on a good note with gains across board: The Sensex was up 3.8%, the Nifty 4%. The BSE Midcap Index was up 1.3% and Smallcap 2%. Most sectoral indices were up too: The BSE Realty Index was up 3.5%, the BSE Capital Goods Index 10%, the BSE Bankex 9.5%, the BSE Metal Index 6% and the BSE Oil&Gas 5.8%. Only the BSE FMCG Index was down 3%.
The banking sector cannot be ignored as most banks have posted better numbers than expected and also have good quality of assets, says IV Subramaniam of Quantum AMC, on NDTV Profit. He is bullish on the banking sector. The BSE Bankex Index is up almost 2% today.
Book partial profits in this rally, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. But it is certainly not a time to buy; wait for the global situation to clear out, he suggests. The market is expected to be choppy ahead, he adds.
Company | Price (Rs) | % Change |
+ Fertilisers & Ch | 28.55 | +19.96 |
+ National Fertili | 66.80 | +19.93 |
+ Dena Bank | 72.50 | +11.20 |
+ Dredging Corpora | 959.05 | +10.00 |
+ Engineers India | 904.10 | +9.99 |
Top Five Losers
+ Bharti Airtel | 894.85 | -5.10 |
+ Apollo Hospitals | 467.60 | -4.26 |
+ Birla Corporation Lt | 321.80 | -4.04 |
+ Adani Enterprises Lt | 794.05 | -3.97 |
+ Indo Rama Synth. | 57.50 | -3.93 |
The Nifty may see 150 point gap-down opening, says an NDTV Profit Poll. The Sensex may come down 500 points today. Some dip buying might come in around 5620.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
The market may enter a quiet period in November move sideways, says Dipan Mehta, BSE/NSE Member, on CNBC-TV18. The news has dried up (the P-note issue, corporate results) and FII funds will slowdown.
There are a lot of IPOs expected to be announced in November so funds may get diverted, says Sachin Shah of Motilal Oswal Securities, on CNBC TV18. The companies that have posted good results could be accumulated in the portfolio from the midcap and smallcap segments.
After the sharp run up, the market will see a slowdown in momentum and move into consolidation, says Harendra Kumar of ICICI Direct, on CNBC TV18. The market has witnessed large cash players who have been playing safe and taking profits off the table.
The market was too much volatile finally it ended on a negative note.
Top Five gainers
Company | Price (Rs) | % Change |
+ National Fertili | 55.70 | +19.91 |
+ MICO | 4,736.95 | +11.38 |
+ P&G Hygiene&Health | 728.85 | +8.07 |
+ ONGC | 1,330.20 | +6.60 |
+ Reliance Petroleum | 261.85 | +6.31 |
Top Five Loser's
Company | Price (Rs) | % Change |
+ Sterlite Technologie | 287.40 | -8.30 |
+ Mphasis Ltd. | 288.75 | -7.75 |
+ Reliance Capital | 1,963.60 | -7.47 |
+ Bharat Forge Ltd | 349.30 | -7.31 |
+ Videsh Sanchar N | 517.05 | -6.96 |
At 20000, the market was overvalued by 19 times so a market correction is healthy, says Amitabh Chakrobarthy, president of Religare Securities, on NDTV Profit. The market is likely to witness volatility but money will move from the A group to the midcaps, he adds.
Marktets in a swing mode
The market breadth is negative with advances at 422 against declines of 754 on the NSE. The major Sensex gainers include L&T, ONGC, HDFC and Reliance Communications while losers include Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, ITC and HUL.
Marico is a buy at current levels and even if it falls to Rs 65 or so, says Hitendra Vasudeo, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. In the short to medium term, it can go up to Rs 85-88 and i9n the longer term, much beyond that, he adds. It is currently trading at Rs 68.50, up 1.6% on the BSE.
If Maytas Infra can trade consistently above Rs 700, then it can go up to Rs 863 or even Rs 900, says Hitendra Vasudeo, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. But on the downside, it can dip towards Rs 660, he adds. He believes the stock will be a little volatile from here. It is currently trading at Rs 745, up 1.1% on the BSE.
points form the day's high and is currently trading at 19,796, down
Markets down goes into negative mode loses 100 points
The stock market lost it's momentum & fell more than 100 points from previous day's close.
Hopefully this should be a temporary setback & the market should recover.
Hindalco is a good long-term investment, as it can give 40-50% returns from current levels in the next 18-24 months, says Sandeep Shenoy of PINC Research, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 199.05, up 1.4% on the BSE.
The next near term target (3-4 months) for the Sensex is 22,000-24,000, says Hitendra Vasudeo, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. It will have a strong base at 18,000 or so, he adds.
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Markets Open Up :)
The market is likely to see choppy times ahead, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. Buy specific stocks on dips and exit at new highs, he adds.
The market witnessed some choppiness but was able to hold on to its gains and closed in the positive. The Sensex closed at 19837, up 54 points while Nifty closed at 5900, up 31 points from the previous close. The BSE Midcap Index was up 0.75% and Smallcap Index was up 1.5%. The market breadth was barely positive with advances at 593 against declines of 592 on the NSE. The major Nifty gainers include RPL, Reliance Industries, ONGC and Hindalco, while losers include MTNL, BHEL, L&T and Tata Motors.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Sensex : 19837.99 54.48 Nifty : 5900.65 31.90
Top Five Gainers
Company | Price (Rs) | % Change |
+ Jindal St & Pwr | 11,884.40 | +25.64 |
+ Century Enka | 168.45 | +15.38 |
+ Sterlite Technologie | 313.40 | +12.73 |
+ Jindal Saw | 787.20 | +11.99 |
+ Nestle India | 1,530.00 | +11.82 |
Top Five Losers
+ Tata Elxsi Ltd. | 257.05 | -6.58 |
+ MTNL | 179.55 | -5.52 |
+ Hindustan Unilever L | 207.60 | -5.21 |
+ Bank of India | 357.30 | -4.11 |
+ United Phosphorus | 355.20 | -3.91 |
Good Morning for the Indian Stock Market
The bse sensex is at Sensex : 19896.15 112.64 Nifty : 5915.85 47.10
Stay invested in the current market, but do not put in fresh money at current levels, says Ashish Kapoor, CEO, Investshoppe, on Zee Business. There will be dips, wherein you will get an oppoturnity to buy, he says.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Company | Price (Rs) | % Change |
+ Mangalore Refine | 80.75 | +26.77 |
+ Bank of India | 372.60 | +17.93 |
+ Reliance Capital | 2,127.70 | +14.75 |
+ Chennai Petro. | 344.05 | +8.81 |
+ Union Bank of In | 174.05 | +8.07 |
Top Five Losers
+ Maruti Suzuki India | 1,087.95 | -8.46 |
+ Engineers India | 754.65 | -7.19 |
+ Mahi. & Mahi | 740.60 | -7.00 |
+ Steel Authority | 261.05 | -5.60 |
+ Alstom Projects Ind. | 940.85 | -5.32 |
CMP Rs144,
Target price Rs160, Upside 11.2%
‰ Sales growth of 15.7% yoy lower than our estimates due to lower room
availability; ARR growth remains healthy
‰ Reduction in staff costs and other expenditure lead to a 420bps yoy
improvement in operating margins
‰ Higher interest cost and tax outgo erode operational improvements; net profit
up 16% yoy
ARR growth remains healthy at 15-20% yoy
Indian Hotels reported a 15.7% increase yoy in sales although room rates
increased by about 15-20% in major business and leisure destinations along with
higher occupancies at 68%. Marginally lower sales growth was an account of lower
room availability, especially at its flagship Taj property in Mumbai where several
rooms were taken for refurbishment. However, these are now back into operations,
ahead of the busy second half.
All round reduction in costs lead to 420bps increase in margins
Operating margins for the quarter improved by 420bps to 29% as staff costs and
other expenditure declined. Better cost control in the first half augurs well for the
busy season ahead, as September quarter has been traditionally the lowest margin
quarter for the company.
Higher interest cost and tax outgo erode operational improvements
Interest cost for the quarter was higher on account of full deployment of FCCB
proceeds which were utilized for acquisition of Taj Boston and incremental debt
raised. Consequently, profit growth was at 16%, despite strong operating margin
improvement.
Earnings growth of 19.6% over FY07-FY09E; maintain BUY
Expansions in domestic and international markets to drive 19.6% earnings CAGR
over the next two years. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rs160, based on 18x
FY09E EPS of Rs8.8.
So Near Yet So Far
The Nifty also closed at 5868 down 37 points
Reliance stocks on a Rampage closing at New high everyday.
The markets ended in red after a sharp run up in the past few sessions. It was an important day as RBI announced the credit policy. According to experts, markets will be unaffected by the the new credit policy as the credit policy was largely inline with street expectations. In the new credit policy, repo rate and reverse repo is left unchanged and CRR has been hiked by 50 bps it has maintained the GDP forecast at 8.5%. The rupee has appreciated at 39.38 against the dollar.
CRR hike is largely a liquidity management tool than used for signalling any interest rate changes. The policy has largely managed the status quo, say experts.
RPL, Sterlite Ind, BHEL and Bharti Airtel were trading strong. However, trading weak were PNB, M&M, TCS and Maruti Suzuki.
Sensex was down 194.16 points or 0.97% at 19783.51, and the Nifty down 37.15 points or 0.63% at 5868.75.
About 1217 shares have advanced, 1760 shares declined, and 81 shares are unchanged.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 8,048.07 down 0.4%.
The BSE Smallcap Index ended at 9,644.44 down 0.6%.
The BSE Bankex was down 1% at 10,550.09. PNB, Kotak Mahindra, SBI, IOB, ICICI Bank, Andhra Bank moved downwards.
The BSE Capital Goods Index was up 1% at 20,006.57. Punj Lloyd, AIA Engineering, Areva T&D, ABB, BHEL closed lower.
The BSE Auto Index closed at 5,479.89 down 3%. Maruti Suzuki, Mah and Mah, Tata Motors, Tube Investment, Punj Tractors closed lower.
The BSE Metal Index closed at 17,302.22 up 1%. Sesa Goa, Jindal Steel, Sterlite Ind, Hindalco, Hind Zinc closed lower.
The BSE FMCG Index closed at 2,146.87 down 1%. Britannia, ITC, P&G, Tata Tea,HUL closed lower
BSE Oil and Gas Index closed at 11,526.30 down 1%. BPCL, Reliance, ONGC ended in red.
The BSE IT Index was down 0.6% at 4,647.53. TCS, Iflex, Satyam, Infy ended in red.
The NSE cash turnover was at Rs 24611.60 crore and the NSE F&O turnover was at Rs 89601.31 crore. The BSE cash turnover was Rs 10948.83 crore. Total market wide turnover was at Rs 125161.74 crore.
Mkt trades in red amid volatility post new credit policy
The market continue to witness volatility and are rangebound. It has been unaffected by the the new credit policy as the credit policy is largely inline with street expectations. In the new credit policy, repo rate and reverse repo is left unchanged and CRR has been hiked by 50 bps maintaing the GDP forecast at 8.5%. The rupee has appreciated at 39.38 against the dollar.
CRR hike is largely a liquidity management tool than used for signalling any interest rate changes. The policy has largely managed the status quo, say experts.
RPL, Sterlite Ind, BHEL and Bharti Airtel are supportiing the markets. However, trading weak are PNB, M&M, TCS and Maruti Suzuki.
At 15.03 hrs IST, the Sensex is down 197.51 points or 0.99% at 19780.16, and the Nifty down 40.25 points or 0.68% at 5865.65.
About 1200 shares have advanced, 1786 shares declined, and 72 shares are unchanged.
The auto index is trading soft down 1.5%, bankex is trading flat with a negative bias.
BSE capital goods and metal indices are trading higher up over 1% each. Broader markets are trading absolutely flat.
Top gainers on the Sensex are BHEL up 4%, Reliance Energy up 5% and Larsen up 2.5%. On Nifty Reliance Petro up 7% and ABB is up 5%.
Top losers on the Sensex are Mah and Mah down 5%, Maruti Suzuki down 7% and HDFC down 2%.
Mkt trades in green post new credit policy: Cap goods up
The markets are trading in green amid volatlity. It has been unaffected by the the new credit policy as the credit policy is largely inline with street expectations. In the new credit policy, repo rate and reverse repo is left unchanged and CRR has been hiked by 50 bps maintaing the GDP forecast at 8.5%. The rupee has appreciated at 39.38 against the dollar.
CRR hike is largely a liquidity management tool than used for signalling any interest rate changes. The policy has largely managed the status quo, say experts.
The auto index is trading soft down 1.5%, bankex is trading flat with a negative bias.
At 13.09 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 49.74 points or 0.25% at 20027.41, and the Nifty up 48.65 points or 0.82% at 5954.55.
About 1391 shares have advanced, 1585 shares declined, and 82 shares are unchanged.
The auto index is trading soft down 1.5%, bankex is trading flat with a negative bias.
BSE capital goods and metal indices are trading higher up over 1% each. Broader markets are trading absolutely flat.
At 12.05 hrs IST, the Sensex is down 53.37 points or 0.27% at 19924.30, and the Nifty up 12.25 points or 0.21% at 5918.15.
About 1320 shares have advanced, 1654 shares declined, and 84 shares are unchanged.
Top gainers on the Sensex are BHEL up 4%, Reliance Energy up 5% and Larsen up 2.5%.
Reliance Petro up 7% and ABB is up 5%.
Top losers on the Sensex are Mah and Mah down 5%, Maruti Suzuki down 7% and HDFC down 2%.
Most active shares on NSE are Reliance at Rs 2,827.90 with 4,509,526 shares, Reliance Petro at Rs 221.80 with 55,195,925 shares and Larsen & toubro at Rs 4,267.75 with 2,738,438 shares.
Market trades flat; unaffected by credit policy
The market trades flat with a bit of volatility but no turbulence, unaffected by the the new credit policy as the credit policy is largely inline with street expectations. In the new credit policy, repo rate and reverse repo is left unchanged and CRR has been hiked by 50 bps maintaing the GDP forecast at 8.5%. The rupee has appreciated at 39.38 against the dollar.
CRR hike is largely a liquidity management tool than used for signalling any interest rate changes. The policy has largely managed the status quo, say experts.
The auto index is trading soft down 1.5%, bankex is trading flat with a negative bias.
BSE capital goods and metal indices are trading higher up over 1% each. Broader markets are trading absolutely flat.
At 12.05 hrs IST, the Sensex is down 53.37 points or 0.27% at 19924.30, and the Nifty up 12.25 points or 0.21% at 5918.15.
About 1320 shares have advanced, 1654 shares declined, and 84 shares are unchanged.
Top gainers on the Sensex are BHEL up 3.5%, Reliance Energy up 3% and Larsen up 1%.
Top losers on the Sensex are Mah and Mah down 6%, Maruti Suzuki down 6% and HDFC down 2.5%.
Most active shares on NSE are Reliance at Rs 2,827.90 with 4,509,526 shares, Reliance Petro at Rs 221.80 with 55,195,925 shares and Larsen & toubro at Rs 4,267.75 with 2,738,438 shares.
Mkts trading flat; Rel Energy, BHEL top gainers
The markets have given up all its gains after gap up opening and are now trading flat amid little volatility. Profit booking was witnessed on the higher level in the early trade today across the sectors. All the BSE key indices are trading in red except capital goods pack.
At 11.10 am, the Sensex is down 84.93 points or 0.43% at 19892.74, and the Nifty down 7.20 points or 0.12% at 5898.70. About 1390 shares have advanced, 1588 shares declined, and 80 shares are unchanged.
Markwet breadth has turned negative with over 470 stocks on the advancing side and over 640 stocks on the decline side. Rupee was quoting at 39.41 against US dollar.
Top gainers on the Sensex are BHEL at Rs 2,730 up 4.51%, Reliance Energy at Rs 1,780 up 3.38% and Larsen at Rs 4,401.05 up 2.89%.
Top losers on the Sensex are Mah and Mah at Rs 765.05 down 3.93%, Maruti Suzuki at Rs 1,165 down 1.97% and HUL at Rs 216.30 down 1.57%.
Most active shares on NSE are Reliance at Rs 2,827.90 with 4,509,526 shares, Reliance Petro at Rs 221.80 with 55,195,925 shares and Larsen & toubro at Rs 4,267.75 with 2,738,438 shares.
Markets open strong; cap good, banks up
The markets have opened on strong note today on account of heavy buying witnessed in the capital goods and banking stocks. Sensex opened way above 20,000 today and Nifty also inched up towards 60,00 level.
At 9:56 am, Sensex was up 260 points at 20103 and Nifty was up 60 points at 5966. Major gainers in the early trade were Rel Petroleum, ICICI Bank, HDFC bank, L&T, BHEL, Bharti Airtel, ONGC and Siemens.
Asian markets mostly declined today as investors locked in profits after a recent rally. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.70% or 117.44 points at 16,580.64, Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted was down 0.06% or 6.12 points at 9,803.76., Singapore's Straits Times plunged 0.36% or 13.78 points at 3,806, South Korea's Seoul Composite declined 0.46% or 9.47 points at 2,053.45. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.36% or 114.36 points at 31,701.26.
US markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 63.56 points, or 0.46%, to 13,870.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 5.70 points, or 0.37%, to 1,540.98, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 13.25 points, or 0.47%, to 2,817.44.
RBI hikes CRR other key rates unchanged!
RBI has hiked the CRR by 50 bps to to 7.5% from 5%. However, the other key rates including the repo and reverse repo rates have remained unchanged.
The bank rate remains unchanged at 6% while the RBI has kept its inflation target for FY08 at 5%. RBI�s GDP forecast too remains unchanged at 8.5%.
The RBI has said that the surplus liquidity needs priority attention. It needs to check bank credit risk from faulty derivative record, it added. Oil companies can hedge forex exposure up to 50% of inventory, it added.
The central bank said that money supply is expanding well above 17-17.5%. There is evidence of stability in real estate prices, it revealed. However, it informed that there are irregularities seen in banks' real-estate exposure.
The RBI has said that 10 banks have high exposure to real estate and stocks, adding that it will continue to manage liquidity through reins like CRR, MSS and LAF (liquidity adjustment facility). RBI said that credit growth is in line with 24-25% target. It confirmed that the credit policy stance has been more hawkish than July; the emphasis being on capital flows.
The Reserve Bank said that that authorized dealers have been allowed to run cross currency options. The total credit growth of 23.3% as on October12 stood at Rs 3.81 lakhs crore, it informed. Managing liquidity arising from forex flows posed a key challenge, it said. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has been up at 7.3% in August 2007 Vs 6.3% (YoY). The deposit growth is ahead of FY08 target of Rs 4.9 lakhs, the central bank informed.
Cash Reserve Ratio or the CRR is the amount of money that every bank has to deposit to the RBI and this affects the banks' operating margins at the macro level. It is now at 7.5%, which means if a bank has Rs 100 crore, they have to keep Rs 7.5 crore with the Reserve Bank of India as reserve. This is necessary to control the liquidity in the market. The BSE Bankex has slipped into the negative zone, down 0.13%.
The RBI has set a GDP target of 8.5% and 5% as the inflation target for FY08, reports CNBc-TV18.
Markets unable to hold to 20000 point goes down
The RBI may not hike the Cash Reserve Ratio, CRR, says Sanju Verma of HDFC Securities, on CNBC-TV18. According to a CNBC-TV18 Bankers Poll, 75% feel there will be no hike in the CRR, while 15% feel otherwise.
MTNL has made some sharp moves and it seems to be heading to Rs 230, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. The stock is at Rs 198.80 currently.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Capital goods, banking, metal and realty stocks are in focus. Market breadth is positive with impressive volume. All the key indices are trading in green and there was no loser in Sensex scrips today.
Ajay Srivastav of Dimensions Consulting says that one should put all worries regarding markets behind.
"Well my feeling for the markets is that, I am feeling wonderful, expanding my shopping list. Life looks good at the end of the year. The results are also here to like Thermax, Grasim, L&T and they all have shown absolutely fabulous results. So there is no need to complain, no need to worry about."
Technical Analyst Ashwani Gujral said that Sensex will definitely reach 20,000 and advised that people should take some profits and try to re-enter at lower levels. He observed that it is a time for caution.
"I think 20K will come and many more milestones will also come, but with a 2,800 points rally over 7-10 days. People should take some profits and try to re-enter at lower levels, because we are moving up quite fast. A lot of people may get stuck at higher levels. So, this is a time for caution as well. But on the Nifty, we still believe that 6,100 and then 6,350-6,400 is possible. The support is way lower at previous highs of 5,736 - 5,740," said Gujral.
S Ranganathan, Head of Research, LKP Shares advised that investors should look at individual stocks.
”There is lot of appetite, in the retail side of the market, for buying stocks. One should not look at the indices per se. The best case scenario here, is to look at individual stocks, where you are reasonably confident and convinced about the businesses and the business model. That is the best route we believe the investors can take at this point in time,” said S Ranganathan.
CNX Nifty was also holding up strongly above 5,900 mark.
All the BSE sectoral indices were trading in green with significant gains. Capital Goods index has outperformed the other indices, which has gained nearly 7%.
The Oil and gas index was up over 4%. BSE Bankex and metal indices were up over 3% each.
In Sensex 30 stocks, Larsen and Toubro gained 10%, BHEL, ONGC and HDFC Bank were other top gainers in the same pack.
Stocks performace
Company Name
Last Price
% Gain
Larsen
4,265.00
10.01
BHEL
2,649.00
8.93
ONGC
1,233.05
6.67
HDFC Bank
1,630.00
5.43
HDFC
2,701.00
5.26
Reliance
2,809.80
4.37
Sectors performance
Index Current Value Change(%)
SENSEX 19,920.12 3.52
MIDCAP 8,069.24 1.88
SMLCAP 9,715.00 1.72
AUTO 5,724.56 1.92
BANKEX 10,583.38 3.02
CD 5,301.73 1.29
CG 19,818.25 6.89
FMCG 2,158.50 1.4
HC 3,936.38 1.3
IT 4,664.00 0.61
METAL 17,251.19 3.03
OIL&GAS 11,601.03 4.48
REALTY 10,306.36 2.85
Markets on a Rampage
Reliance stocks were the major gainers followed by Sbi & others
Now the question comes for how long will this party continue ?
The market crossed yet another milestone today! Ahead of the Credit Policy announcement expected tomorrow and the Fed meet on October 31, the Sensex closed at an all-time high, after hitting the 20,000 mark in late trade today. It closed at 19,977, up 734 points from the previous close. It was the third biggest single day absolute gain for the BSE 30-share index. The Nifty ended the day at 5900, up 198 points. The 50-share index also touched an all-time intra-day high of 5922 today. The leaders of the rally were capital goods stocks, along with oil & gas, metals, banking and realty. Sensex gainers for the day included L&T, HDFC, BHEL, ONGC and HDFC Bank
Markets open with a bank posed to cross the 20,000 mark
India is likely to see a GDP growth of 9% for the current financial year, says Finance Minister P Chidambaram, reports Zee Business. But growth in infrastructure is less than the GDP and therefore he has asked pension and insurance companies to look at investing more in the infrastructure sector.
There is a lot of retail money sitting on the sidelines waiting to get into the market, says Ajay Srivastava of Dimension Consulting, on CNBC-TV18. The market has factored in the slowing down of FII flows to an extent, he adds.